A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
