🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still